New Yorkers are growing increasingly uneasy about the strength of the job market, according to new data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a shift that underscores mounting anxiety about employment prospects even as inflation pressures show signs of easing.
The New York Fed’s December Survey of Consumer Expectations found that residents are less confident than at any point in the past decade that they would be able to quickly find a new job if they were laid off. The probability respondents assigned to finding work fell to the lowest level since the survey began in 2013, a stark signal that confidence in the labor market is weakening across the region.
While the survey reflects national sentiment, the findings carry particular weight in New York, where high living costs leave little margin for prolonged job disruptions. Rent, child care and transportation costs remain elevated, meaning even brief periods of unemployment can have outsized consequences for households.
The report shows that lower and middle income households, many of whom are concentrated in New York City and its surrounding suburbs, are driving much of the decline in confidence. Respondents earning under $100,000 a year expressed the sharpest drop in their expectations of finding new employment, reflecting broader concerns among service workers, office employees and contract based workers who form the backbone of the city’s economy.
At the same time, New Yorkers reported a higher perceived risk of job loss over the coming year, even though expectations that overall unemployment would rise edged slightly lower. Economists say that combination suggests a shift from fear of mass layoffs to concern about individual vulnerability in a job market that feels less fluid and forgiving.
This sentiment aligns with recent labor trends in the city. Job growth in New York slowed in the final months of 2025, particularly in sectors like finance, technology, media and professional services, which had fueled much of the city’s post pandemic recovery. Hiring has become more selective, and workers say it feels harder to move laterally or secure higher paying roles.
Despite those worries, New Yorkers expressed greater confidence in their current financial situations compared with earlier in the year. That contrast highlights a fragile balance: many households feel stable for now but fear what would happen if their employment situation changed.
Inflation expectations ticked up slightly in the survey, with respondents expecting prices to rise around 3.4 percent over the next year. For New Yorkers, where inflation often hits harder due to housing and transportation costs, even modest increases can intensify job related stress.
The data arrives as policymakers weigh next steps on interest rates and economic support. Federal Reserve officials have signaled a desire to avoid tightening conditions further if labor markets soften, but they also remain cautious about declaring victory over inflation.
For New York City, the findings reinforce concerns about affordability and economic resilience. City leaders have emphasized job creation, worker protections and expanded social supports as key priorities in 2026, especially as federal data suggests workers feel less confident about their economic security.
